Five Key Takeaways from California's 2026 Primary that are Shaping the Path to November

Insights from primary day and its aftermath as focus shifts to general election

With Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton officially set as California’s top two gubernatorial candidates in the General Election in November, the post-mortem conversations surrounding the state’s primary election are lending insight into what to expect in the months ahead.

Lucas Public Affairs recently hosted a post-election discussion featuring two of the California Chamber of Commerce’s power players —Liz Snow, senior vice president of Political Affairs, and John Myers, senior vice president of communications and external affairs — to provide their perspectives on primary outcomes and how the results inform what’s to come. Moderated by LPA President Cassandra Pye, the conversation explored emerging political trends and what they signal for California’s future. Now that the gubernatorial primary has been called, five key themes from the discussion seem even more relevant.

1. Money Isn’t Everything

Perhaps the clearest point to be taken from the governor’s race is the power of self-funding. In spite of investing more than $200 million of his own money in his campaign, Tom Steyer failed to secure a place in the general election. Both Snow and Myers noted that financial resources alone win neither elections nor voter trust. Instead, the constant drumbeat of advertisements and media presence likely led to voter fatigue that cost Steyer a top-two win.

In turn, Becerra was able to consolidate key Democratic constituencies and maintain broad support across the state’s major population centers. Becerra’s more distinct anti-Trump position also allowed him to keep his message front and center among undecided voters, while Steyer’s billionaire background challenged voters to trust the authenticity of his positions.

2. California’s Business Community is Still a Significant Political Force

CalChamber’s executives also called out the effectiveness of the state’s business community as a coordinated political coalition in the primary election. Snow detailed the impressive level of collaboration among employer organizations, industry groups, utilities and others that joined forces around shared economic priorities. The election demonstrated that when business interests align and engage strategically, they can still play a consequential role in shaping statewide outcomes in California despite its very blue electorate. The results could signal a renewed era of political engagement for California’s business community — characterized by greater coordination, earlier involvement and more sophisticated coalition-building.

3. California Voters Reward Experience & Familiarity

The final primary results suggest that voters favored candidates with established records and attainable goals over outsider or self-funded disruptor-style campaigns. Becerra’s victory reflected the continued value of credibility, familiarity and stability for a state as large and complex as California. Labor-backed and Democratic Socialist-aligned candidates were among those who struggled the most to gain ground with voters, noting that many of those identified as and championed by progressive organizations struggled to advance. While progressive activism continues to shape California’s policy debates, the election illustrated the distinction between grassroots enthusiasm and broad electoral appeal.

Primary election results also reinforced a broader lesson. While voters may express frustration with the political status quo, they remain cautious about embracing candidates who have not demonstrated a clear path to governing. Voter skepticism toward candidates perceived as making promises they could not realistically deliver was apparent. Both Snow and Myers said that authenticity and a clear understanding of California’s challenges remain essential to statewide success.

In an era of fragmented media and increasing public distrust, voters appear increasingly willing to scrutinize not only what candidates promise, but whether they believe those promises can be fulfilled. The results suggest that even in deep-blue California, voters remain pragmatic and often gravitate toward candidates perceived as qualified, electable and focused on achievable outcomes.

4. Tech’s Political Influence Continues to Evolve

The significant investments made by technology leaders and investors during the election cycle, particularly support for San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s campaign for governor, also provides an interesting lesson. While the technology sector has become increasingly engaged in California (and national) politics, both experts suggested that some donors approached those politics through the lens of venture capital and startup investing rather than traditional campaign strategy. It’s not enough to want a candidate, it’s also important to convince voters why they should support that candidate as well. The primary also highlighted a continuing evolution in tech’s political role and important questions about how Silicon Valley’s growing political influence may shape future elections.

5. The Top-Two System Continues to Shape California Politics – For Better or Worse

The Becerra-Hilton matchup also reignites the debate over California’s top-two primary system. Rather than producing a contest between competing wings of the Democratic Party, predicted by some early on, the system delivered a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican general election. While the top-two approach helped set up more competitive elections at the local level, just one statewide race produced two Democratic candidates who will advance to the General Election.

For Republicans, Hilton’s advancement represents an opportunity but also a familiar challenge. While the party successfully secured a place in the general election, the larger question remains whether it can build a coalition broad enough to compete statewide in California’s current political environment. Hilton’s Trump endorsement likely offers little benefit to his campaign considering the vast majority of California voters who disapprove of Trump’s presidency however his presence on the ballot may help Republicans running in competitive down-ticket legislative races.

What to Watch in November

The general election is now positioned to become a larger debate about what’s next for California, as the Democratic front-runner and Trump-backed Republican battle it out to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom. As Myers observed, Hilton may be a formidable general election debater, but California’s partisan fundamentals will likely continue to favor Democrats. Early polling from the Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies already indicates Becerra boasts a strong 20-point lead over Hilton.

Meanwhile, numerous state legislative races and ballot initiatives that have qualified for the November ballot are set to test just how much appetite Californians really have for more progressive policies. As Politico recently reported, several all-Democrat runoff races will determine how the Legislature’s progressive candidates stand up against moderate or industry-backed challengers, including in the North Bay and Los Angeles. Some Republicans will test their lifespan in more competitive districts in the Central Valley and San Diego. Not to mention the Dem-on-Dem face-off for California insurance commissioner. Voters will decide if former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim, who’s endorsed by Bernie Sanders, or longstanding state Sen. Ben Allen is best suited to regulate the nation’s largest property insurance market amid major affordability and availability concerns.

What we’re watching in the months ahead? How election season shapes the conversations that define California’s future. We’ll be keeping a close eye on the issues poised to take center stage in the general election, analyzing how they may impact our clients and ways to break through the noise through November and beyond.